March Quarter GDP: Jamaica’s Economic Contraction Continues

The results are in: Jamaica’s economy is flailing worse than thought. Real GDP for the January to March Quarter (Q1) retreated to its lowest level since 2010. This represents a full 1.6% decline from Q1 2012.

In Annex II of the IMF Agreement, the first macroeconomic assumption is Real GDP growth. The assumption is that Real GDP “is expected to recover in 2013/14 to 0.8%…”. The results from the first quarter of the calendar year does not bode well for the first quarter of the fiscal year which is April to June 2013. We await those results with baited breath.

diGJamaica notes that the largest causes of the decline, have yet to pick up any growth traction:

1. Agriculture, declined by 11.4% – Agro Park Stop Order Issued by NEPA

2. Tourism, declined by 2.3% – May Arrivals Down

3. Mining and Quarrying, declined by 9.1% – Finally An Increase In Alumina Production, diGJamaica however notes that the prices of Aluminium have reached a 5-year low indicating that the prices of alumina will also be relatively low.

jamaica_real_gdp_q1_2003_2013
Source: STATIN