Inflation (Actually, Deflation) Continues Into April

We are now 4 months into the new year and we have yet to experience one month of inflation. Four consecutive months of deflation has left us with a year to date Inflation figure of -0.6% (or deflation of 0.6%).

Inflation in 2017 vs Deflation in 2018

This is not a new phenomenon for Jamaica as we experienced deflation for the first 4 months of 2016 as well as 4 consecutive months at the end of 2014 leading into 2015. By 2016 April, Jamaica had experience deflation of -1.7%, compared to April 2017 where we had experienced inflation of 1.3%.

Those deflationary periods, however, could be traced to falling crude oil prices and therefore falling gasoline prices.

This deflationary period seems to be a bit different and is marked by rising gasoline prices (and crude oil prices). STATIN data suggests Electricity prices are falling which is incredible news for Jamaicans, especially in manufacturing. This news suggests that the recent introduction of LNG is having a greater than offset effect on rising crude oil prices. How long this can last is anyone’s guess, but for now we are more than happy to accept deflation in these circumstances.

Have you seen prices falling where you are?

 

Post by MoonStoneBlue

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